Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union
Jon Sampedro1*, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven1, Russell Horowitz1, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs2, Natasha Frilingou2, Alexandros Nikas2, Matthew Binsted3, Gokul Iyer3, and Brinda Yarlagadda3,
1 Basque Center for Climate Change, Leioa, Spain
2 Energy Policy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece
3 Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, United States of America
* corresponding author: jon.sampedro@bc3research.org
The reduction of European Union's pipeline gas imports from Russia as a consequence of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the EU. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix, prices, and trade flows of different subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and LNG infrastructure. Moreover, there are also large changes in the volume and geographical distribution of global gas infrastructure capacity additions and stranded assets, with a direct effect on global gas trade dynamics. Our results show that by significantly reducing demand for natural gas, the EU Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves resilience against a complete and persistent cut-off of Russian pipeline gas. However, further improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts. We find that the improvements in the EU´s policy framework in response to the energy crisis more than compensate for the potential effects of a complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas.
Available at Zenodo: https://zenodo.org/record/8163958
Clàudia Rodés Bachs, russellhz, & jonsampedro. (2023). bc3LC/Sampedro-etal_ESR: 1.0.0 (1.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8163958
| Model | Version | Repository Link |
|---|---|---|
| Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) | Enhanced version of v-6.0 | https://github.com/jonsampedro/gcam-core |
| Component | Version | Repository Link |
|---|---|---|
| gcamdata | 1.0 | https://github.com/JGCRI/gcamdata |
| rgcam | 1.2.0 | https://github.com/JGCRI/rgcam |
To reproduce the results and figures shown in Sampedro et al.,
- Install
Rhere - https://www.r-project.org/ - Install
R studiofrom here - https://www.rstudio.com/ - Run the script called
Results_gas_processing.Rchunk by chunk to generate the figures.
Note that figures are generated for a suite of representative regions. The user could easily genearte figures for any of the 32 GCAM regions.
Similarly the user can easily change some additional settings (e.g., gases or palettes) in the first lines of the script